Cannabis Laws Under a Trump-Vance Administration

The future of cannabis laws in the United States could look quite different under a potential Trump-Vance administration, a prospect that has sparked both interest and concern. While public opinion on cannabis has shifted dramatically in recent years, with increasing support for marijuana legalization, key figures like Donald Trump and J.D. Vance hold positions that suggest a cautious and complex approach to cannabis reform [1]. Here, we’ll explore predictions of cannabis laws under a Trump-Vance administration and how they might affect culture, businesses, and consumers.

Decriminalization vs. legalization

A central debate in cannabis policy revolves around the distinction between decriminalization and legalization. For example, decriminalizing marijuana would reduce or eliminate criminal penalties for possession and use, typically treating them as minor civil offenses. On the other hand, legalizing cannabis involves creating a regulatory framework in which cannabis and hemp can be sold, taxed, and consumed within the bounds of the law [2].

Regarding cannabis laws under a Trump-Vance administration, marijuana policy might remain much the same. Historically, former president Donald Trump has taken a cautious stance on federal marijuana reform. For instance, he has opted for limited actions that allow states to craft their own marijuana laws while avoiding full federal legalization. Similarly, J.D. Vance, who has secured an Ohio Senate seat, has shown a conservative approach. More specifically, Vance has expressed concerns about marijuana legalization, citing public health and safety concerns, including traffic fatalities and the influence of illicit activity tied to drug cartels [3].

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State vs. federal control regarding cannabis laws under a Trump-Vance administration

At the federal level, marijuana remains classified as a Schedule I substance under the Controlled Substances Act. In other words, marijuana is illegal in the eyes of the federal government. However, more than half of the U.S. states have enacted some form of marijuana legislation, whether for medical marijuana or recreational marijuana use. For example, states like Ohio, where Vance represents, have taken incremental steps to legalize medical marijuana [4]. Other states like California and Colorado have legalized recreational marijuana.

Many believe that a Trump-Vance administration would likely maintain a states’ rights approach, allowing states to continue crafting their own cannabis policies without significant federal interference. This approach aligns with Trump’s previous position, where he signaled support for state autonomy over marijuana laws but refrained from endorsing federal-level legalization. However, he has recently stated that he supports legalization in Florida [5]. For Vance, who has voiced skepticism about marijuana’s impact on public health and safety, this type of policy would be a shift [1].

Cannabis Legislation and Regulation in 2024

Public opinion and political calculations

Recent public support for cannabis legalization has dramatically shifted in recent years. Indeed, polls consistently show that a majority of Americans, including many conservatives, favor some form of cannabis legalization [6]. This shift puts a potential Trump-Vance administration in an interesting position. On one hand, their voter base may expect them to uphold traditional conservative values, including a more cautious approach to marijuana reform. On the other hand, the economic and social benefits of legalization, such as increased tax revenue and job creation within the cannabis industry, cannot be ignored [7].

J.D. Vance’s stance on marijuana is heavily influenced by concerns about drug abuse, particularly in light of Ohio’s struggle with the opioid crisis and the rise of synthetic opioids like fentanyl. In a statement, Vance said that any discussion of cannabis legalization must take into account the broader context of substance abuse and how drug policy affects communities. This focus on caution aligns with Vance’s conservative Hillbilly Elegy roots. In other words, he emphasizes the need for strong social and legal frameworks to prevent the promotion of illicit activities [8].

The economic and industry perspective

Despite these cautious positions, the cannabis industry represents a growing economic force, particularly in states that have fully legalized marijuana. Legalization has generated billions in revenue, created thousands of jobs, and led to significant tax windfalls for states like Colorado, California, and Illinois. Thus, for the federal government, embracing marijuana reform, especially in the form of cannabis banking reform, would address one of the most critical issues facing the industry: access to banking resources [9].

Currently, most financial institutions hesitate to work with cannabis businesses due to federal prohibitions. As a result, activists have called for the passage of the SAFER Banking Act (formerly known as the SAFE Banking Act), a bipartisan bill that would protect banks working with legal cannabis businesses from federal prosecution [10]. While Trump and Vance may not fully endorse cannabis legalization, they could support marijuana banking reform as a way to provide clearer regulatory guidance and encourage a more transparent cannabis industry [11].

Also, the Senate Banking Committee, where debates over the SAFER Banking Act have taken place, could see renewed attention under a Trump-Vance administration. For example, laws that allow cannabis businesses to access banking resources might generate economic benefits, issues that might attract favor with Trump and Vance. In other words, conservative viewpoints might support bringing marijuana use and sales into the legal economy rather than leaving it in the hands of illicit actors [11].

The History and Impact of Cannabis Prohibition

Criminal justice and social impact

One of the strongest arguments for cannabis legalization emphasizes reducing incarceration rates for non-violent drug offenses. For one, Vice President Kamala Harris, during her time as a senator, championed cannabis reform, emphasizing the need for fair enforcement regulation and the reduction of racial disparities in marijuana arrests [12]. In contrast, Vance has not prioritized marijuana reform as a criminal justice issue.

Even so, under a Trump-Vance administration, we might see a focus on general decriminalization over full legalization, with efforts aimed at reducing the number of individuals incarcerated for minor marijuana offenses. However, we likely would not see a full-fledged legal cannabis market under a Trump-Vance administration. This approach could satisfy conservative concerns about public safety while addressing some of the demands of both liberal and conservative social justice advocates.

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The international context

As the U.S. grapples with its cannabis policy, other nations have moved ahead with cannabis legalization. For example, Canada, Uruguay, and parts of Europe have fully legalized marijuana, creating pressure on the U.S. to reconsider its stance on federal prohibition [4]. Possibly, a Trump-Vance administration could be influenced by these global trends, particularly in the context of trade agreements and international markets. While Trump’s foreign policy has typically been focused on national interests, the growing economic potential of cannabis might lead to new discussions on the international cannabis trade [13].

The Legal Status of Cannabis Around the World: What You Need to Know

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Key takeaway: potential cannabis laws under a Trump-Vance administration

The future of cannabis laws under a potential Trump-Vance administration is difficult to predict, given the complexities of public opinion and the ongoing debate over decriminalization vs. legalization. While Trump and Vance are unlikely to support full federal cannabis legalization, if they win the election, they may pursue a more nuanced approach that includes supporting cannabis banking reform and allowing states to craft their own laws. However, we will only know for sure what happens regarding cannabis laws under a Trump-Vance administration if they win in November.

The cannabis industry, which continues to grow in economic and political influence, will likely play a role in shaping this debate, particularly in terms of marijuana banking reform and its integration into the mainstream economy. Ultimately, the Trump-Vance administration would be wise to balance conservative values with evolving public opinion and economic realities to craft a coherent and forward-looking cannabis policy.

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Medical Disclaimer / Legal Disclaimer – Information is provided for educational purposes. It does not and is not intended to constitute legal advice or medical advice. We attempt to be accurate and up-to-date, but the legality of cannabinoids and the science of cannabis are evolving. The author is neither a legal professional nor a medical expert. Before buying or using any products, you should check with your local authorities and medical providers.

References

Frequently Asked Questions

Will a Trump-Vance administration fully legalize cannabis at the federal level?

While it’s unlikely that a Trump-Vance administration would pursue full federal legalization of cannabis, they may take a more cautious approach by supporting decriminalization over full legalization. For example, this could involve reducing penalties for cannabis use while leaving the power to create specific marijuana and hemp laws to individual states [3].

How might a Trump-Vance administration impact cannabis businesses and banking?

It’s possible that the Trump-Vance administration could support reforms like the SAFER Banking Act, which would give legal cannabis businesses access to financial institutions without fear of federal penalties [11].

Could states still decide their own cannabis laws under Trump and Vance?

It’s possible that a Trump-Vance administration would maintain a states’ rights approach, allowing states to continue crafting their own marijuana and hemp policies [3].